129775523353906250_120Industrial global Wang Xiaoming: the transformation of China's macroeconomic trend is not reversed
Organised by the China Securities newspaper "Taurus the ninth China fund industry awards presentation ceremony" was held in Beijing on March 28. Industrial global (340,006) Fund, Deputy General Manager Wang Xiaoming subject. Following Mr Wang Xiaoming lecture memoir: ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon friends you. Let me on behalf of the industrial global fund companies about our marketSome views. It should be said that current stocks of us feel very tangled, because we think in a logical dilemma. If the vertical and horizontal contrast from the stock market, we are undoubtedly at a relatively low level. However, our stock market, from the end of last year until now, our whole of market liquidity showed a marked improvement, recently the entireFunds interbank interest rates dropped sharply, by over a dozen years of experience, more close to Chinese stock markets with liquidity, once liquidity begins to become loose, cheaper stocks as a whole back to the relative level of, there may be a better market. However, why investment property stocks go up more, I think this one of the most important reason behind,Still with us now in a transition period is closely related to the. So, what I want to talk about
tera power leveling, this topic is "China's macro-economic restructuring is of potential irreversible". I'll give some of us a brief introduction, we consider that throughout Europe a debt crisis in the eurozone despite a certain degree of ease, but still be 2012 a globalOne of the more important risk factors. Throughout the year about euro debt is about 1 trillion euros in the euro zone, in the face of the economy as a whole and in each country is different from economic pressures, below the environments in the game, we think that the eurozone debt issues may also become a substantial change in the 2012 global market a very important factor. The second is that weEconomy's growth rate has begun to move closer to the quality of a difficult transition. So, the question is actually from our Premier, Government work report this problem, forecast for economic growth this year to 7.5%. We believe that in such an environment the following, our path of transformation may also not be done overnight, theProcess will also face a lot of twists and turns, this by the transition to a quality, our point of view, this process is quite painful. Third, on the capital market, we feel that the 2012 one of the tight liquidity environment has been a marginal improvement, over the whole financial tensions last year has been a notable mitigation. However, because the entireThis structural factors of inflation, or some term factor has not been completely eliminated, we feel that 2012 is a very liberal policy environment is most difficult. From the overall stock market, is already in a dynamic prediction of 2012 may 11 times or so, but this is a situation as a whole. However, stripping out some underestimate the value of thisValuations are still high, with the 2001 spot than, 20%,30% such a ratio. Among the most important causes of gem is also valued as a whole is still at a relatively high level. At present levels of junior and the gem of the whole underlying profit growth to more than 35%, we find from the past since the last report,Overall growth of the Gem State, we think the valuations are also at risk a larger cut. Therefore, investment strategies, we kept on defense, emphasized selective fight back. Trend of China's economic growth, and monetary policy is clear before you turn, may lack an overall investment opportunities in the stock market as a whole. Therefore, we feelGenerally insist on solid defense is, as we are a prerequisite for investment. From the entire asset allocation is more around the transition move, we focus on finding is trading up, coupled with the new economy, this is one of our main direction. More hope to find in a transition process, losses of less than, as we look for a new generation of growth stocks fanWai. I may have a few issues to make a communication, euro-zone debt crisis as a whole, we think that he lacks a comprehensive, overall solution. Despite any crisis, solution is to use credit as a whole instead of local, using long instead of short term credit, but in the eurozone, means that he has a long lever to process. On the domesticOn the transformation of the Department over the past 30 years, one of the most important driving force behind China's economic growth from the demographic dividend and institutional change. Investment both sentenced for from our exports, stimulating economic growth over the past ten years in China are the two major factors, but our investments, our exports since last year, are faced with a relatively tough environment. WeWould like to say that investment, I personally feel that the 2012 should be investing is becoming a factor in the labor market as a whole a lot of, we want to look at the past 15, 16 real interest rate volatility in the market, our time in the past 7 or 8 years, which is our premier ruling of 7 or 8 years, most of the actual market growth rates in China are shichuIn a negative interest rate, it is compared with the 7 or 8 years before with us. Throughout most of the interest rate level in a month, more than half the time of real interest rates negative interest rates below the level of the month. The real interest rate is below the level of negative interest rates, has led to our growth over the past 7 or 8 years on average than in the past out of the 11%. This is fastFast growth, especially Government-led investment under the background of rapid growth, what is the result of? We feel that the past 7 or 8 years, private sector bear a heavy tax burden through inflation through higher prices, is in fact a large number of private sector was underpinned by an investment of a rapid economic growth in China, that China might be, why do weSay we must transition now, had to transition to a very important cause. For now, our whole system of bonuses, cheap labour, including advantages are gradually losing our appreciation. So that's why at this point, we forecast for the whole 2012 based on investment as a whole
tera gold, we believe that there is still a lot of uncertaintyQualitative. Well, China's economic growth in the long run down is inevitable, if we reform goes, I think this growth stages, or of medium and long term are likely to be reduced in the future more. Of course, we are talking about increasing consumption is an important direction of the transformation of. However, as we have said, to expand consumption and willingness to improve residents ' consumption is in the first place, andHigh consumption as a whole. Wish how is actually the problem is that the Government has committed to increase this reform to the system of health care, pensions, and so on. End of expectations is to hope that the overall consumption of the residents of the ability and willingness to constantly improve. However, the expansion of consumption, more important depending on income growth as a whole, now and in the future of the entire top of the orientation of a policy,We believe it will increase for the whole of the financial restructuring and expenditure, increase the proportion of income distribution among residents in the GDP as a whole. In this sense, is what we see corporate profits, measures of GDP from income includes earnings, remuneration of workers, and Government tax. So, revenue growth will decline as a whole, labour costs must beIs on the increase. This means that we in the transition process as a whole, profitability of enterprises in the transition process, in General, is the structure
tera gold, will be under pressure. In other words, we are in the transition process, corporate earnings growth is to have a clear understanding. Well, where I would like to talk about the real estate policy on China's economyThis effect. I think the last two years the whole of a policy-oriented, like real estate, real estate this reference may have different formulations, and some of the said real estate investment, financial properties, or recently have said real estate to go to the pillar industries, such as FA. My personal opinion, real estate in the Chinese economy, especially for real estateInvestment, real estate investment is itself not only because the property itself will also bring a Government land transfer payment revenues, including other associated taxes income, fluctuation of real estate policy, may give rise to the entire investment than larger fluctuations in China. Of course, we say to invest in real estate and financial property on our stock market is a good thing,Because from a policy-oriented, to discourage speculation in real estate and investments, means that we have to find a way out. Therefore, most of the money went to finance products, now this year, top policy level, for real estate investment and financial attributes of the restriction of these policies, there continues to be maintained. I believe that this may have on the stock market is a goodThe message. Bad news, because if once the real estate investments, may in the investment industry as a whole, I believe, a lot of companies ' earnings effects appear. Well, not just that there are some big city worth of blue-chip companies, might have on small and medium-sized companies is the same. So, this is one aspect. We also talked a shares the overall assessment ofValue level is in a position, but structural foam. Such bubbles rationality there? Looking at the figures from the past, first in the process of macroeconomic growth, profit growth of SMEs will also decline. May only from the individual's perspective, there may also be the company's growth, because of his relatively small size. However, overall growthFrom last year's data, you can find such a trend. In other words, the SME company, profit is still at a lower risk. So, in such a context, we also hope that a long-term perspective considering the direction. President Guo had been said in the past, how to increase the intensity of blue-chip investment, blue-chip stocks is the direction of our future investments, IHave recognized such a view.
Take this occasion, we also call for more for blue-chip stocks such as these stocks represented our CSI 300, you can not have more innovative products. Because first of all, we speak, current investment structure of the entire market, the Fund has been since the end of 07 left and right down to 30%. In such aInvestment structure below, we continue to be a topic of a market environment of small and medium investors, we only through product innovation to attract small investors on investment in small and medium-sized market capitalisation stocks for the transition from game of the game shifted to blue-chip companies, blue chip of an investment climate of the market as a whole can we eventually. Another one, weBelieve a long-term funds, including pension funds, social security funds of the WTO, are on the whole market will be a good help. I describe the potential from the tone of speaking, have a more conservative and cautious view on the economy. However, no matter what, we a-share level has returned to a valley region, throughout the systemic risk in the future, there is no doubt thatHas dropped sharply. The transformation of our economy as a whole, actually remained an optimistic medium-term point of view, I believe that after China's stock markets after a transition, there must be a better return on investment. Thank you very much.
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