129792403238593750_407Iran nuclear talks clear decline of oil price Outlook appears more clearly in the direction
On Saturday, Iran and "P5 1" (in the United States, Russia, Britain, France and Germany) on the issue of nuclear talks for the first time in Turkey ended in Istanbul. Judging from the feedback of information, did not achieve any substantive outcome of the Conference.
But from the attitude of the participants reflected, seems to have improved. I believe that, from the perspective of the overall situation of the talks, has identifiedThe Iran nuclear issue, has been basically ruled out the possibility of friction force. From Iran on the change of attitude, the sanctions of the West also began having an effect. Last week Iran began to extend the payment period, such as preferential sales of crude oil, now Iran pressures are emerging, you can predict is, this time Iran nuclear confrontation between the two sides in the crisis will lastDeprecated, are gradually reduced the possibility of the further deterioration of the situation. Return to energy market itself, I expect from Iran nuclear issue process, less likely to later continue to intensify, while Iran is not the crude oil export ban has stopped. Supplies of crude oil in the international market is not affected by sudden impact, and will run along the path of the currently established, JulyFormer EU imports will completely stop Iran crude oil, China and South Korea and India will continue to reduce imports. From current supply patterns, since the beginning
tera power leveling, Iran oil production by 200,000 barrels per day and exports is expected by July, will continue by 400,000 barrels per day. Judging from the current overall OPEC production capacity, Iran crude oil is not a gap March OPEC early production increase of 500,000 barrels per day, Saudi output increase, mainly from Libya and Iraq capacity of recovery, now Saudi Arabia still has nearly 2.8 million barrels per day of spare capacity. Saudi oil Minister said recent twice in a row, Saudi have the ability within one month will yield up to 2 million barrels, and again in 3 months increased 700,000 barrels. From the calendarLooking at the history, 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait Shi, Saudi Arabia had 3 months to increase the yield of 2.7 million barrels per day.
Currently Saudi spare capacity to quickly fill in Iran in July after EU sanctions to take effect the transfer of crude oil demand, crude oil market does not supply shortages. From the current demand situation, economic weakness in Europe, energy consumption shrinking; The United States into the petrol consumption season, but oil consumption is still at historical lows. Global total consumption 89.4 million barrels per day of petroleum products in the first quarter, four-quarter decline compared to last year by more than 300,000 barrels. United States Energy Secretary in the latest issue of report on 2012 global oil supply and demand in the overall estimates, growth in consumption of only 890,000 barrels per day, supply growth achieved1.81 million barrels per day, compared to the tight balance over the past 3 years, this pattern of energy supply and demand of the market as a whole will be more lenient. Therefore, as the market for Iran worries the situation could further heat up gradually release of sustained, London between the crude oil price in New York last week to below 18 dollars/barrel bad convergence; even early last week Iran high profile claims that Spain and GermanyAfter the embargo
tera gold, oil price is not significantly affected.
Long term results from crude oil
tera power leveling, Brent and 1208 spreads from the contract month high of 3.8 m down to 2.6, implying that Iran has gradually reduced the impact of the situation. Summing up the above, I believe that the Iran nuclear talks although no substantive resolution, but from the Conference reveal that information can be seen, problemsResolve will return to talks, military friction and the possibility of further intensification of the situation or be excluded. From the international oil market supply and demand patterns stand, on the Iranian nuclear issue will not happen under the further deterioration of the situation, will enter the stage of supply as a whole. I expect, in April United States refinery after the end of the stock in the early season, marketWeakness of will gradually, expected to appear more distinct fall in the oil price.
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